Predict & Play
Road to Charlotte
Louisville's odds of playing for the ACC title on Dec 5. Pick any game and the whole league re-simulates under the ACC's tiebreaker rules.
Our gamesUofL's remaining schedule4 ACC games left.
Finish lineOdds by final ACC recordHow often each finish gets UofL to Charlotte with your current picks.
Scoreboard watchWho to root forThe 15 other ACC games that move UofL's odds the most, in week order. Tap to lock a result in.
What-ifEvery remaining ACC gameLeave a game on Model to let it play out, or pick a winner.
Week 71 games
Week 87 games
Week 98 games
Week 105 games
Week 118 games
Week 128 games
Week 136 games
TiebreakersHow the ties fallThe most common ways UofL gets in, or gets edged out, when it finishes level with someone.
The leagueACC title game oddsRating is points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
| Team | ACC | Rating | Title game |
|---|
Under the hoodHow the model works
The tiebreaker follows the ACC policy as amended July 1, 2026. Ties start from the best ACC win percentage; because some teams play nine league games and some eight, a team with a different game count also counts as tied when it has the same number of wins or losses. Two teams: head-to-head, then SportSource's Team Success Ranking. Three or more: record among the tied teams when they all played each other, otherwise a team that beat every other tied team is in and one that lost to all of them is out, then Team Success Ranking. Every placement restarts the process.
Ratings blend last season's TeamRankings predictive ratings with every 2026 ACC result. Home field is worth 2.5 points and a game varies by about 14 points, so a 14.5-point favorite wins about 85% of the time.
Team Success Ranking isn't published until the regular season ends, so the model estimates it from each team's strength and ACC record. Ties that come down to it, like a UofL–Clemson tie, are close calls.
Assumes every team is postseason eligible. Results from CollegeFootballData, as of Oct 17, 11:55 PM ET.