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Wolfpack vs Tar Heels

Gameday · SAT JAN 9
NC StateVSNorth Carolina
Tip-off in
––Days
––Hrs
––Min
––Sec
Tip12:00 PM ET
WatchESPN2
LineNot posted
Dean E. Smith Center · Chapel Hill, NC

Win probability

1912 blend
34% NCSUUNC 66%
Adj. efficiency33%
67%
SRS32%
68%
Elo37%
63%
UNC +3.8
Proj. margin
151.0
Proj. total
67.4
Proj. pace

Home court counts 3 points. Blend of Adj. efficiency, SRS and Elo.

Returning starters · 2025-26 stats

PPG
  • 22V.LubinF · 7.1 RPG13.6
  • 1D.WilliamsF · 4.6 RPG14.0
  • 2P.McNeil Jr.G · 0.8 APG13.8
  • 7A.BreedG · 1.3 APG4.5
  • 13M.SagniaF · 2.8 RPG2.3
  • 15J.StevensonF · 4.4 RPG8.1
  • 4J.YoungG · 0.3 APG1.7
  • 2I.DenisG · 0.1 APG1.9
  • 99J.HolbrookF · 0.6 RPG0.2
  • 32E.SmithG · 0.6 APG1.4

Ratings

CBBD · 2025-26
+20.7Adj. net rating+23.3
34thAdj. net rank27th
124.1Adj. offense121.7
103.4Adj. defense98.5
66.6Pace68.3
9.4SRS11.4
1868Elo1958
20–14Record24–9

Season per game

2025-26 · 34 games / 2025-26 · 33 games
83.2Points79.7
76.3Opp points71.6
55.0%eFG%54.3%
14.0%TO%14.0%
28.3%OREB%28.2%
.35FT rate.37
43%3PA rate42%
54%Assisted FG%57%

Last five games

NC State
L66-68vs TEX
L74-81@ UVA
W98-88vs PITT
L84-85vs STAN
L64-93vs DUKE
North Carolina
L78-82vs VCU
L79-80vs CLEM
L61-76@ DUKE
W67-63vs CLEM
W89-82vs VT

Head to head

Last 10 · 2017-18–2026-27
25-26UNC 58 · NCSU 82Tue, 2/17
24-25NCSU 73 · UNC 97Wed, 2/19
24-25UNC 63 · NCSU 61Sat, 1/11
23-24NCSU 84 · UNC 76Sat, 3/16
23-24NCSU 70 · UNC 79Sat, 3/2
23-24UNC 67 · NCSU 54Wed, 1/10
22-23UNC 69 · NCSU 77Sun, 2/19
22-23NCSU 69 · UNC 80Sat, 1/21
21-22UNC 84 · NCSU 74Sat, 2/26
21-22NCSU 80 · UNC 100Sat, 1/29

Game information

TipSaturday, Jan 9 · 12:00 PM ET
VenueDean E. Smith Center · Chapel Hill, NC
WatchESPN2

Abbreviations

Adj.Adjusted — points scored or allowed per 100 possessions, corrected for the strength of the opponents faced. Net is offense minus defense
SRSSimple Rating System — average scoring margin, adjusted for strength of schedule
EloA rating that moves after every result, by more when the opponent was strong
PacePossessions per 40 minutes
PPGPoints per game
eFG%Effective field goal percentage — made threes count one and a half field goals
TO%Turnovers per 100 possessions
OREB%The share of a team's own missed shots it rebounds
FT rateFree throws attempted per field goal attempted
3PA rateThe share of field goal attempts taken from three

Scores, plays and box from CollegeBasketballData